Free Agency RB Reactions (Part III)

Foreman of the Jury... What is your verdict?

The RB signings keep coming and they won’t stop coming. Add a good back so you hit the ground running.

Thus far, I’ve covered the signings of Miles Sanders (in great depth) as well as the David Montgomery, Rashaad Penny, Samaje Perine, Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr. signings.

Today we’ll run through each of Jamaal Williams to the Saints and D’Onta Foreman to the Bears. We’ll set aside Alexander Mattison re-signing with Minnesota for now until we receive more definite word on Dalvin Cook’s status. And we’ll set aside Chase Edmonds and James Robinson’s contracts for the final wrap-up post as I view both as secondary backs at best.

Jamaal Williams to the Saints

Everyone’s favourite hip-thruster is headed to the Big Easy.

Signed for 3 years, 12 Million with 8 Million guaranteed, Jamaal Williams’s projection is simple enough when the backfield is at full strength. However, his upside should Alvin Kamara miss time with a potential suspension is worth some debate.

I wrote about WIlliams often in the “Hitchhiker’s Guide to Running Back Column” last year. A common refrain was discussing how little his role was impacted by D’Andre Swift’s health status. His backfield mate missed three games between Weeks 4-7, and Williams had a total of 2 catches on 4 targets for 5 yards. His average snap share in those contests was 42.3% vs. a season-long average of 41.4%. His season-long route participation was just 19.1% (stats from Player Profiler).

Williams was solidified as a two-down banger in Detroit whose usage week-to-week was more dependent on game script and the “hot hand” than who else was in the backfield. He’s adequate in this role, posting league-average results in RYOEA and ROE% over his career.

However, he has not always been this pigeon-holed. In Green Bay, Williams served as the 1B to Aaron Jones in a committee that was not nearly as segmented by usage-type. In 2020, he ran a career high 41.3% of the team’s routes playing next to one of the best pass-catching backs in the game. He had 31 receptions that season and posted a serviceable 1.17 YPRR: 27th among running backs with at least 20 targets. In two games Jones missed, Williams posted 85% and 88% of snaps with 11 targets translating to 10 receptions for 64 yards.

In 2019, Green Bay played a portion of their season without Davante Adams and Williams stepped up as a major portion of their pass-game in two-RB sets. He posted 1.25 YPRR, and had a stretch of nine consecutive games above a 50% snap share with 34 targets over that period.

In terms of contingent upside, Williams handled over an 80-percent snap share nine times when called upon due to injuries in the running back room. Remember this catch?

Cougs in the Pros 🤙🏼 @BYUpros

Another one!! Touchdown by Jamaal Williams on a spectacular catch!! That’s our RB!! @jswaggdaddy | #GoPackGo

This context makes his upside in New Orleans hard to parse. Just how high is Williams’ upside in 2023?