Hitchhiker's Guide Part 9: High-Value Splits

We wrap up our dive through the dead zone and streaming rounds with a look at three backfields drawing heavy investment in the fantasy landscape

This will be the last Hitchhiker’s Guide backfield breakdown. After today I’ll have only the run-through of late-round options on backfields with an established workhorse, and my favourite streaming choices to write up for the off-season HHG. I may do the latter prior to the former just so you have something direct for weekend drafts.

In the final article I’m looking at three “high-value backfields.” Each has a player drafted squarely in the WR window, alongside a RB at the high-end of the RB streaming rounds, with exception of Detroit; which is the sole backfield to feature TWO backs drafted within the fist seven rounds. These backfields are joined by the Steelers, Jaguars, and Seahawks as fitting my definition, each of which I wrote about two articles ago.

Each of these backfields are interesting because they fit the “pressure theory” of RB drafting I outlined when I started this series. We want to be drafting RBs through and beyond the “dead zone” who are drafted based on the upward pressure of their talent and environment pressed against the downward pressure of touch competition, rather than the backs who are drafted based on the lack of pressure being applied against their projection.

J.J. Zachariason has found that two historically strong bets are the first RB drafted in an ambiguous backfield, and the second RB drafted when they are taken in the middle-rounds after a starter drafted in the dead zone. I encourage you to check out this piece, and this piece, if you want a deeper dive into the specifics of his parameters and other similar work from J.J. T.L.D.R: applying J.J.’s concepts suggests each of Javonte Williams, A.J. Dillon, and David Montgomery are strong historical bets at ADP.

Without further ado, let’s jump into the micro-analysis and balance that against this broader backdrop.

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0NOTE: all data is from the FantasyPoints Data Suite unless otherwise sourced with exception of the following: Rush Yards over Expected (RYOE) and Percentage of Rushes over Expectation (ROE%) are sourced from NFL Next Gen Stats. PFF Grades and Yards per Route Run are from PFF. BAE Rating and Relative Success Rate (RSR) are from Noah Hills. Juke Rate is from PlayerProfiler.

SEE: “Metrics Legend” at the bottom for an explanation of each stat and its acronym

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The Detroit Lions

Environment

No backfield scored more fantasy points in 2022 than the Detroit Lions, and only the Los Angeles Chargers had more expected fantasy points in their backfield. Some of this is bound to regress. Jamaal WIlliams’ absolutely preposterous 33 carries inside the five yard line were more than Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley put together, and 14 more attempts than second place Ezekiel Elliott.

However, the elements that led to this cornucopia of opportunity remain in place. Do I think it’s likely the Lions will have more fantasy points to backs this year than any other team? No. But if I was forced to choose any single team, they’d be my first pick.

The drivers of RB fantasy production are TD opportunities, reception opportunities, and (to a lesser extent) rushing opportunities, along with the talent of the RB room.

The 2022 Lions hit the difficult parlay of staging a strong offense capable of generating goal-line opportunities and sustaining strong play volume, while employing a pocket QB with a check-down tendency, and a poor group of non-RB pass catchers. The reliance on Jared Goff to continue playing at this level with a slot-WR, rookie TE and RBs as his favourite targets worries me. But if it hits again, the environment is pitch perfect for RB scoring. If not, the goal-line upside could decline, but the usage rate for backs should remain extremely high in all phases.

Talent Profiles

I’ve written about the Lions from a talent perspective on several occasions, so we’re going to focus more on the fantasy upshot.

If you want a more in depth read, here is my discussion of David Montgomery, from when he first signed. And here is my discussion of Jahmyr Gibbs after being added to the backfield in the draft.

The Lions have a brand new backfield in 2022, but have built it out of familiar skillsets, pairing a dynamic, receiving weapon with questions regarding his rushing between the tackles, with a reliable grinder-back who struggles with explosiveness.

The possible difference lies in the contingent value of the new pair. D’Andre Swift had lost the coaching staff’s trust as a runner and as an outlet back. In the second half of last year, he was given a tailored package of schemed targets on screens, and primary read targets on wheels, angles and choice routes, along with some tendency-breaking carries typically out of passing formations. The usage was extremely fantasy-friendly per snap, but he had the empty calorie carries, short yardage work, and 3rd and long dump offs nearly eradicated from his plate.

Meanwhile, Jamaal Williams was locked into his own singular role. We discussed it in detail in the Saints breakdown, but his route participation and snap rate were virtually unchanged between games Swift played or missed. The difference came in who played the non-Williams snaps (Craig Reynolds and/or Justin Jackson), and how that other back was used (less dynamically).

Craig Reynolds is now back with the team, but was originally cut from their 53-man roster. This backs up my thesis that the high-investment in their backs this year was less about changing their base rotation, but to find more versatile pieces. David Montgomery has actually performed better as a pass-catcher than runner, and while Gibbs has questions about his rushing ability, he has high-upside and the Lions suggested they believe in it by investing the 12th pick.

This could lead to slightly more interchange of roles to be less predictable than in 2022, eliminates the need for a dedicated third-down back alongside the two primary ball-carriers, and may increase the contingent upside of each player if one gets hurt.