Hitchhikers Guide to RB Part 5

Falling Knives or Tournament Hammers? Breaking down to the Patriots and Jets Backfields

Hello folks, and welcome back to the Hitchhiker’s Guide for Part 5 of our journey through the Running Back galaxy. In this column we analyze every potential running back streamer, and every potential dead zone “detour.” (Time permitting, we may also cover a few early RBs I find especially interesting)

In each article, I approach every option in the backfield with an eye to the talent level of that player, their relative competency in each fantasy-relevant skillset, and try to sketch out what needs to happen for each to hit a reasonable ceiling at their cost.

When our journey is complete, we will pick a favourite and least-favourite RB in each round from the end of the dead-zone to the end of drafts in each fantasy format.

For those joining us in transition, we have completed four legs on the journey:

1. Saints and Eagles (plus an introduction of the column)

NOTE: This column pre-dated the latest Kendre Miller Miller injury and the Darrell Williams signing, but did predict them adding a passing down back.

2. Dolphins and Bears

3. Vikings and Panthers (plus a discussion of drafting ‘fragile starters’)

4. Rams and Texans (plus my thoughts on pre-season usage reactions)

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Additionally, I wrote last night about the Dalvin Cook and Ezekiel Elliott signings at a more macro level. I’d encourage you to prioritize that piece if you have the time before today’s, because we are effectively picking up right where we left off. (That one is fairly short by my egregious standards)

HHG Part 5 — Analyzing Recently Shaped Backfields

NOTE: all data is from the FantasyPoints Data Suite unless otherwise sourced with exception of the following: Rush Yards over Expected (RYOE) and Percentage of Rushes over Expectation (ROE%) are sourced from NFL Next Gen Stats. PFF Grades and Yards per Route Run are from PFF. BAE Rating and Relative Success Rate (RSR) are from Noah Hills. Juke Rate is from PlayerProfiler.

SEE: “Metrics Legend” at the bottom for an explanation of each stat and its acronym

New York Jets

Breece Hall (35.8 — RB12) ; Dalvin Cook (96.1 — RB31)

*Underdog ADP on August 16 — Will likely shift significantly here over the next couple days

Team Environment

The New York Jets were already a difficult team to project prior to their latest free agent signing. They are one of just 6 teams who open the year with both a new Quarterback and new play caller. However, we have seen Rodgers and offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett together before in Green Bay, though Matt LaFleur retained play calling duties.

I’m bullish on the efficiency upside of this unit.

Last year’s Packers featured an extremely poor set of weapons. On the whole, they finished 11th in EPA, but ranked 5th in EPA from Week 10 to the end of the season (and 9th in EPA per drop back). Week 10 was the first time rookie Christian Watson played above 70% of snaps.

I think it’s fair to be skeptical of whether Watson is on the elite path his late season surge suggests, but his immediate domination of their passing game after gaining a larger role, and the associated spike in efficiency, reflects just how impoverished this group was without him. The fact Rodgers was able to pilot a half-season of top-five offensive efficiency with one NFL caliber starting pass catcher speaks to the fact I think he still has it at 40 years old.

This Packers offense shapes up in line with most of the Lafleur-era Packers teams: one superstar pass catcher (Garrett Wilson), surrounded by an array of complimentary pieces with more real-life utility than fantasy appeal who should rotate throughout the game. It also features potentially one of the most exciting RB combos in the NFL with Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook.

The primary limit on Rodgers’ recent offense for fantasy purposes is their pace of play. The Packers have ranked between 18th and 24th in plays per game in each of the last four years, which is generally uncharacteristic of high-end offenses. This is based on a combination of Rodgers’ tendency to let the play clock run down at the line of scrimmage in order to assess the defense, and the frequency of short passing on hot routes that keep the clock moving. However, it’s undeniable Rodgers’ tendencies have been a net benefit to his teams and their core fantasy assets.

Packers Running Backs have totalled 29.2, 28.3, 25.6 and 24.9 points per game the last four years, typically with two backs taking the entirety of the work if both are healthy. Rodgers has been blessed with a terrific receiving talent in Aaron Jones, but Jamaal Williams — who provided absolutely nothing in the receiving game in Detroit — and A.J. Dillon — who was a black box receiving prospect coming out of run-heavy Boston College — have each provided respectable receiving volume and efficiency when utilized on passing snaps alongside Rodgers.

Rodgers is such a cerebral player with so much agency at the line of scrimmage that I consider him the most important determinant of the plays ran and the team’s tendencies out of the Rodgers / LaFleur / Hackett triad from the Green Bay days, and therefore expect most of his common staples to carry over to the Big Apple. These include some especially favourable looks for Running Backs — especially out of two back sets.

Major concepts benefitting the back are:

• RB flat routes out of man coverage

  • The slot WR will run a slant to effectively pick the Linebacker, while the outside WR will run a clear out, allowing the back easy separation and a one-on-one with a leveraged defender in a race to the sticks

• Inside zone handoffs vs. light boxes on passing downs

  • Rodgers is always willing to check into a hand off when the defense shows their hand on a third and medium. Typically you’ll see him spread the formation out to get numbers before handing it off up the middle for a chunk gain.

• RB Swing passes

  • Rodgers will run this play with either the back or a motion-slot WR (I’ve been drafting Mecole Hardman expecting him to see these touches). Typically it involves a fake handoff to a second RB or motion WR, with the intended target back swinging out toward the boundary with Allen Lazard setting a seal and giving the receiver a one-on-one to the post.

  • The video above is from a two-back set but they have run these out of several formations, often as audibles against favourable looks

• “Pony” Routes

  • See for yourself in this NFL NextGen Stats diagram. The Packers used one of the league’s highest rates of two-back sets, often sending one in motion with the other trailing. In this set, it’s a tap pass to Jones with Dillon as lead blocker, but they have ran this set with one back running a deep wheel route and the other running a swing, forcing linebackers to make a choice and leaving the other with a lot of space.

  • The Jets had success on two-back sets last year and I expect this formation to carry over given their recent investment. These are used especially around the goal-line so keep an eye out for which back gets the Jones role as the primary receiver and which back gets the Williams/Dillon role as the primary decoy/blocker.

  • Given Cook’s shoulder issues, I suspect that Hall may be stuck blocking on the tap-pass concepts, but with the sophomore’s breakaway speed and success on high-ADOT passes last year, I think he’ll be the preferred option on the deep wheels

I was hoping to include a cut-up of some embedded examples but trying to find unblocked content became not worth the effort. Check this video out for yourself and try to spot some of your favourites.

It’s fair to say two of the Jets’ best playmakers are now Running Backs. Rodgers and co’s ability to design unique plays to feature their backs efficiently in the passing game — especially in the red zone — make his offenses among my favourites to watch, and creates an exceptional fantasy environment for his backs.

Talent Profiles

Breece Hall

As discussed last week, the most important question regarding Breece Hall is his health status. I’m not a medical expert so I won’t attempt to provide injury analysis. But I will note that the medical community seems relatively bullish on Hall’s chances of returning to peak performance in prior to mid-season compared to most backs less than a year removed from an ACL tear.

If healthy, Breece Hall is an absolute stud.

He didn’t qualify for the 90-rush cutoff used in the NFL NextGen Stats model so I am citing Tej Seth’s MFBAnalytics model below.

Hall’s sample is tiny and buoyed by some explosive plays, but he ranked near the league’s best backs in both RYOE and EPA/rush. Note that teammate Michael Carter had the same team environment and performed among the league’s least effective runners.

Across the statistical spectrum, Hall checks nearly every box:

While billed as a potentially inconsistent decision maker in college, Hall posted league-average success rates overall, with a much higher success rate on zone runs, the bread and butter of the west coast offense. His success rate compared to his teammates Carter and Zonovan Knight was substantially better. While the later was a UDFA, we have an effective rushing season on record from Carter in 2021. That he performed so poorly last year tells me this was likely a poor environment for RBs (*cough* *cough* Zach Wilson) that Breece Hall transcended with his talent.

At the contact point, Hall ranked 14th in MTF/A, and was able to maximize his elusiveness ranking 4th in YAC/A (3.63). This speaks to Hall’s best attribute: creating big plays, on the ground and through the air. He ranked third in the league with a 10% explosive run rate, and 2nd in with 2.00 YPRR.

Everything in Hall’s profile is subject to small sample concerns, but this was not some Day 3 pick who flashed out of nowhere. Hall came into the league as an uber-productive, every down back with an elite size-speed combination. He delivered on that promise and more in his rookie year, showing off higher receiving game diversity than he ever displayed at Iowa State, and becoming a more consistent runner.

If he returns to health, I expect him to be one of the best running backs in the world for the next half-decade, and contend for the overall first pick in drafts in the future.

Dalvin Cook

As previewed yesterday, there is little doubt Dalvin Cook is in decline. How steep that decline is, or whether we can expect a rebound depends on what statistics you prioritize and what priors you take with you into the analysis.

To be as objective as possible I will simply walk through each of the key indicators in each portion of the game, and allow you to draw your own conclusions alongside me.

Below is a table showing the statistics I rely on most to assess a player in each of the three main aspects of rushing the ball, plus an overall metric with a quantitative component (RYOE/A) and a qualitative one (PFF Grade), as well as both qualitative and quantitative receiving metrics.

It’s worth noting that in 2020 — Cook’s best season — he was dominant in nearly all these rushing metrics. His receiving has always been more of a result of his dominant snap share than a standalone skillset, but it has also taken a step back the past two seasons.

The former Seminole can still evade tackles, and still has a legitimate top gear, as evidenced by some long plays in 2022. I briefly mentioned the argument in Cook’s favour I’ve heard from a few sources last article, that his high top-speed on NFL NextGen stats, combined with his YAC/A from 2022 shows that he was still in strong physical condition, and perhaps his poor RYOE result (his most talked about negative signal) was due to his shoulder injury which has since been surgically repaired.

My micro-counter is it makes little sense his best metric over the past two years would be missed tackles forced if the source of his decline was a shoulder problem. From my vantage point watching Cook, I think his quick twitch has declined a touch over the past two campaigns from his peak, and it’s resulted in worse results from attempts to shake his adversaries instead of taking the most direct route.

My macro-counter is that we need not know precisely why a 28-year old RB is declining. If you start cherry-picking his best stats with a plausible narrative, you are probably positioning yourself to catch a falling knife. Also, Cook has suffered five shoulder injuries in six years: regardless of the surgical repair, he remains at perpetual risk to re-injure it, in addition to his general fragility as a 28-year old running back.

I’m hesitant to assume RBs who are in the midst of decline at this age to remain the version we last saw of them. But if he does, he’s clearly the 2nd best talent on the team and a viable option who can handle a workload. Breece Hall is reportedly likely to play Week 1, but if he is sparsely used, Cook should be able to offer average to slightly below average play on a significant snap share. This is a more fantasy friendly RB environment than Minnesota’s, which offered just 22 total expected fantasy points per game, so Cook could match his fringe RB1-status from last year on a slightly reduced workload to open the season. If the split begins more even, I think both could be mid-range RB2s splitting up a likely 25-28 cumulative expected fantasy points between them in a Rodgers offense.

If Breece Hall never recovers his form, it is possible Cook could ride this out for the full season as the 1A in a very strong offensive environment and flirt with RB1 status. However, barring a re-injury, my expectation is that Hall begins to emerge in the early-mid season, forcing an even timeshare, and eventually displacing Cook by providing a much higher caliber of play than the later is capable of at this point.

It is ironic knowing the types of players RB-heavy vs. Zero-RB drafters prefer, but Cook’s best fit is on zero-RB teams: offering a mix of early season starting weeks, with season-long contingent upside. Think of Cook as a souped-up Samaje Perine or Jamaal Williams in terms of his role on your team.

In a vacuum, I prefer to bet on ascending talents who are riding positive inertia into the playoff weeks, and therefore would rather bet on Zach Charbonnet in a vacuum who may offer a similar median role by mid-season. I also prefer to bet on talent upside in ambiguous backfields such as Khalil Herbert who I could see emerging as an every-week starter dominating his team’s backfield on the back of his play from wire to wire.

However, if you find yourself unconvinced by my talent take on Cook, he is a great fit for several team constructions, and offers a lot of upside in this environment. I want to be careful not to hold a declining former star to a higher standard of talent than I would most backs being drafted as timeshare options on ZeroRB teams. For instance, if you are writing Dalvin Cook off as washed, but betting on Brian Robinson or Samaje Perine ahead of him — I’m skeptical you’re calibrating your talent metre consistently.